World Cup 2026 Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses & Group-by-Group Analysis
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the biggest ever — 48 teams competing across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. With the expanded format comes more upsets, more drama, and more unpredictability. Here are our predictions for who will lift the trophy, the dark horses to watch, and a quick take on every group.
Top Favorites to Win World Cup 2026
Spain — Defending Champions
Spain won the 2024 European Championship and will enter the 2026 World Cup as the team to beat. With a golden generation featuring young stars like Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Gavi alongside experienced leaders, La Roja have the depth and tactical flexibility to defend their crown. Coach Luis de la Fuente has built a side that dominates possession and transitions quickly.
France — Perennial Contenders
France have reached the last two World Cup finals (winning in 2018, runner-up in 2022). Kylian Mbappe remains the most dangerous attacker in world football, now settled at Real Madrid. With a squad packed with talent from the Premier League, La Liga, and Ligue 1, France are always a threat. The question is whether age catches up with their 2018 core.
England — Close but Not Yet
After losing the Euro 2024 final to Spain, England will be desperate to finally win a major tournament. Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, and Declan Rice form a formidable spine. If the Three Lions can overcome their knockout-stage nerves, they have the squad to go all the way.
Brazil — Rebuilding but Dangerous
Brazil disappointed at the 2022 World Cup and Copa America 2024, but the talent pipeline never stops. Endrick, Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo, and a resurgent midfield give the Selecao genuine hope. Playing in the Americas — closer to home conditions — could be an advantage.
Argentina — Messi's Last Dance?
The 2022 World Cup champions may see Lionel Messi feature in his final major tournament. Even without Messi at his peak, Argentina have a deep, well-organized squad under Lionel Scaloni. Young talents like Julian Alvarez and Enzo Fernandez ensure this team competes at the highest level.
Germany — Home Continent Advantage
Germany bounced back at Euro 2024 on home soil and will look to carry that momentum into 2026. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala are among Europe's most exciting young talents. Playing in North American time zones that suit European viewing could help the squad's rhythm.
Dark Horse Teams to Watch
Colombia
Colombia reached the Copa America 2024 final and play with an intensity and flair that can trouble anyone. Luis Diaz and a strong midfield make them serious contenders to reach the quarter-finals or beyond.
Japan
Japan have been the best Asian team at recent World Cups, beating Germany and Spain in 2022. Their technical quality and pressing game are world-class. With more experience at the top level, Japan could be the team that finally breaks through to the semi-finals.
United States — Host Nation
Home advantage matters. The USA have a talented generation led by Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, and Gio Reyna — all playing at top European clubs. Massive crowd support across 11 venues could push the USMNT to a deep run. A quarter-final or further is realistic.
Portugal
Even as Cristiano Ronaldo ages, Portugal have built a squad that doesn't rely on him alone. Rafael Leao, Bernardo Silva, and Bruno Fernandes provide creativity, while a solid defense gives them the foundation for a deep knockout run.
Group-by-Group Quick Takes
With 12 groups of 4 teams each, here are brief takes on what to expect. For a detailed breakdown of every group, see our complete group guide.
Key Players to Watch
- Kylian Mbappe (France) — the most electrifying attacker in world football
- Jude Bellingham (England) — the complete midfielder, decisive in big moments
- Lamine Yamal (Spain) — the teenage sensation redefining what's possible
- Vinicius Jr. (Brazil) — flair, speed, and match-winning ability
- Florian Wirtz (Germany) — creative genius pulling the strings
- Christian Pulisic (USA) — the face of American soccer on the biggest stage
Make Your Own Predictions
Agree with our picks? Disagree completely? Use our free World Cup 2026 Simulator to predict every match yourself — from the group stage through the final — and share your bracket with friends.